来源:零点财经论坛

    这一波互联网公司的裁员潮确实猛烈,从硅谷到中关村,从互联网巨头到三四线城市的小虾米,个个都开始捂紧了口袋,钱是只进不出,人是只出不进。我无聊去软件谷转了转,发现去年和热火朝天的一些创业公司,如今已经是人去楼空了。

 

    我还记得去年的一个老板,当着我面和他的员工吹牛逼:“好好干,咱们市值也几个亿了,到了明年,老子又能换一台宝马了。”

 

    那时候,他们大手大脚烧钱,随便挪用公司资产,买房买车眼都不眨,疯狂扩张,并购别的企业,也不在乎是不是吃下了垃圾资产,月薪一两万招来北大青鸟培训出来的程序员,国外野鸡大学培养出来的金融分析师。天天晚上觥筹交错,笙歌不绝,简直是“秋月春风等闲度,血色罗裙翻酒污。”

 

    那时候,每个人脸上都泛着亢奋的红光,眼睛里闪烁着迷惑的未来,他们念着阿里的价值观,喊着华为的奋斗口号,以为自子个都是风清扬、逍遥子、任正非、余承东,分分钟可以财务自由。

 

    现在,他们都消失了,老板走运的套现了跑路,没来得及套现的,已经无力经营下去,从市中心撤到城乡结合部,然后转让甩卖,北大青年出身的程序员丢了月薪两万的工作,开始送外卖;野鸡大学出身的海归金融分析师,再也没有什么事情需要他去分析了,于是开始开滴滴,逮到一个客人就吹牛逼——追忆似水年华。

 

    更惨的是一位房产中介小哥,曾经的他乘着房价暴涨的时候,狠狠发了一笔,当时他月入四万多,于是靠着自己的内部关系,借了首付贷,连拿两套房,每个月要还好几万的贷款,不过那时候他还得起,现在,房价一直在阴跌,有价无市,没有人买房子,他所在的门店,因为连续几个月都没有成交量,已经被总公司裁撤,他失业了,还要还贷款,他到处兜售他的老破小房子,可惜没人愿意接盘。房子卖不掉,月供还不起,他梦想中轰轰烈烈的炒房致富大业,还没有开始,就结束了。

 

    他原本想乘着一波房租涨价,用房租来还贷款,然而现在,房租别说涨了,不跌就谢天谢地,你求着别人来租,也未必有人来租,因为大家的日子都不好过,程序员被裁员了,金融分析师回家开滴滴弄烧烤了,年薪三十万的白领转眼间没了工作,大厂的员工同样失业,年轻人一波一波地撤退,他们没了收入,谁来租你的房子?

 

    别说普通人了,上半年还呼风唤雨的两个,锤子科技的罗永浩,现在已经被冻结了股权,OFO的戴威,现在已经被限制乘坐高铁等公共交通工具,全网络,都是讨债要钱的声音。

 

    其实也很有趣,在一个资产价值上涨的周期里,大家会在乎他们欠了多少钱吗?锤子科技欠钱不还又不是一天两天,那时候,供应商不会找他要钱,京东也不在乎一点借款,因为大家都有钱;OFO亏损也不是一天两天,押金挪作他用也不是什么新闻,为什么一年前大家不在乎那一两百块钱押金?因为大家都有钱,一两百还算钱吗?

 

    现在不一样,这是个资产下跌的周期,什么东西,都变得不值钱起来,罗永浩说他的锤子值50亿,你信吗?戴威说他的OFO起码值100亿,你信吗?北大青鸟出身的码农说他月薪起码2万,你会给吗?英国海归的金融分析师说他起码得年薪50万,你会聘用他吗?我知道一件事,市区有一栋大楼,它的老板在拿它找银行抵押借款,他当年拿下这栋楼的时候,花了9个亿,当年抵押这栋楼,能够借到20亿,现在你知道银行给他估值多少?5个亿而已。不是这栋楼贬值了,而是当年它的价值存在泡沫,根本不值那个钱,而人在泡沫当中,从来不觉得自己是泡沫,身边都是泡沫,直到冬天来临。

 

    那么我们来问自己一个问题,在这个冬天里,你值多少钱?你的资产值多少钱?你的技能值多少钱?你的公司又值多少钱?

 

    这个帐要好好算,千万别高估了自己,你要知道,美国那些超级公司,那些横行几百年的巨头,资产都在缩水,华尔街都有人失业,通用都在几万几万地裁员,你能在全社会排到什么位置?凭什么你可以值钱?

 

    在这里,我要说一句比较冷血的话,很多事情,并不是什么崩溃、并不是什么贬值,而是价值回归而已。当年风起云涌的互联网创业大潮,有几个是值得那个估值的?有几位程序员、白领是配得上那个工资的?当年房价暴涨,有几栋房子,又真正配得上那几百万的价值?所谓的经济周期,就是周期性的价值回归。

 

    在市场利好的情况下,先富起来的那批人希望以原始积累资本渔利的需求,仿照国外成熟资本市场催生了私募股权投资公司(很多只是想捞钱,无心调研筛选优质初创企业),另外一边就业压力和政策鼓吹无数人加入创业大军,一时间鱼龙混杂泥沙俱下,他们希望借着互联网春风实现人生飞跃和阶级跃迁,于是一拍即合,各种乱七八糟创业公司融资烧钱热火朝天,业务能不能持续盈利没关系,蹭到热点就行,比如当年的区块链和现在的新能源汽车,全然不顾企业需要盈利生存这个根本,陷入了不断拉投资ABCD轮烧钱的怪圈。表面上看上去一片新经济欣欣向荣,其实资金都在空转,全是皇帝的新衣,经不起一句大实话的拆穿。到了冬天的时候,冻死的就不是一两个了。

 

    所以,你知道的,在泡沫周期里,所谓的“利好”、“看多”,就是投机心态的赌博而已,赌的就是自己能够在冬天来临之前套现脱身,有几个做到了,就吸引了大部分的加入,结果大部分被套牢了,只能等死。而且,就算是上市了,能够套现发财的只有创始人和几个原始股高管,剩下的还会被吸血,还记得前一段蘑菇街的上市吗?高管们财务自由了,员工们的股权却被稀释,最后投的钱都回不来。

 

    这个世界有些基本的东西是不会贬值的,比如说种地的农民,他们不会贬值,比如说学校里的教师,比如说有着核心技术的公司,他们不会贬值,那些真正知识技能的劳动者,他们也不会贬值,甚至小区门口卖煎饼、油条、烧卖、包子的老大妈,她的东西同样不会贬值。他们手上,有着过冬的储备粮。

 

    冬天里储备粮是什么?是你的现金,是你赚钱的能力,是你的核心技术,不是什么房子,也不是你的固定资产,只要没法迅速变现的,都没用。

 

 

    对抗通胀,你买什么都不行,只有你本人值钱,有储备粮,才能对抗冬天。

 

 

 

 

如果经济危机来了,我们普通百姓该提前做何准备?

 

雪崩时,没有一片雪花是无辜的。

 

十年前的四万亿开启了这轮的潘多拉魔盒,释放出来的不仅仅是钞票,更多的是贪婪,自上而下,谁也没能避免。

 

人们因贪婪陷入癫狂,拼命作,大家发现,居然越作越赚钱,比如:P2P、现金贷、共享单车,甚至是掏出六个钱包来买房......

 

尽管大部分人都认为自己不是最后的那个傻瓜,尊称接盘侠,俗称韭菜,但是从某种角度来讲,谁都是逃不掉的。

 

贪婪驱使着越来越多的人参与进来,贪婪就像世界上传播力最强的传染病,迅速从金融领域向各行各业蔓延,当我们冷静回头看,互联网+其实都是表象,金融+才是的事实。

 

最后甚至连拼命放水的政府反被绑架其中,有人看到了危害,但在“这次真的会不同”,有些人和一些管理单位在纠缠不清的既得利益下,选择了视而不见。

 

有专家说,在中国,诈骗经济已经取代了信用经济,许多借了钱的人,从一开始就没想着要还,在这其中,我们甚至还看到了企业、地方ZF的身影葱葱。

 

今年5月,国家还专门开了个“健全系统性金融风险防范体系”专题协商会给全社会人普及信用准则:

 

“要建立良好的行为制约、心理引导和全覆盖的监管机制,使全社会都懂得,做生意是要有本钱的,借钱是要还的,投资是要承担风险的,做坏事是要付出代价的。”

 

一是“做生意是要有本钱的”,强调不要空手套白狼;不要费尽心机非法集资或者集资诈骗;不要绞尽脑汁,从银行套取贷款,不要以赌博心理,将杠杆加到无法承受的地步。

 

二是“借钱是要还的”,要讲诚信,强调欠债还钱,天经地义。如果借钱还不了,那就不要借钱,更不要变着戏法、巧立名目去借钱。

 

三是“投资是要承担风险的”,强调投资要买者自负,既想获取高回报,又不愿承受任何风险,天下没有这么便宜的事。

 

四是“做坏事是要付出代价的”,强调天网恢恢疏而不漏,出来混迟早要还,既想非法获取好处和利益、又不想付出任何代价,在当今社会做不到。

 

 

1、禁止投资高杠杆资产。哪些是高杠杆资产呢?典型的就是房产。普通百姓买房几乎都是要按揭,首付+按揭就是加杠杆买房。在经济危机时,居民收入骤减,楼市刚需骤减,房价毫无疑问会下跌。此时加杠杆买房,无异于送钱给开发商和给你自己增加压力。当然在危机后期也是刚需买房的好时机,毕竟便宜;可何时才是后期也很难判定,需要专业知识和不停学习才能够把握。

 

2、避免投资长期性风险资产。是避免,并不是完全禁止。如果你是专业投资者,如果遇到低估值优质资产,不排除可以潜伏。这种长期性风险资产都有哪些呢?比如股权投资、你认为的低估值股票等。这些需要专业知识和投资经验。无论股权投资于有潜力的创业企业还是成熟的准IPO企业,风险其实都是非常大的。首先创业企业可能由于经济危机导致资金链断裂,从而破产;Pre-IPO企业可能会因为监管政策导致IPO放缓或暂停以防止股市抽血。

 

而股票呢?虽然可以随买随卖,但在经济危机中,股市是首当其冲受打击的。所以别想着在危机前潜伏低估值优质股。首先,危机前都是泡沫的狂欢,你根本不知道谁才是黑马谁是黑天鹅,就是白马也大概率会在危机中被错杀。所以危机来临时,股市有多远跑多远,等危机中后期再来捡宝也不迟,不管你是专业的还是业余的。

 

3、建议降低投资回报预期,投资长期性低风险资产。哪些是长期性低风险资产呢?如定投、指数基金、固收理财和银行存款等。

 

凡是高息高回报的理财都一概拒绝,卖出各种企业债券、地方债券、国有债券,把存在小银行的钱取出来,换到四大国有银行里。

 

还有最后的防线,那就是固收理财和存款。固收理财中尤其是那种短期或活期理财最有优势,兼顾收益性和流动性;而存款,就是保留手中最后的子弹,在最需要的时候出击。这里的话可以选择大额存单等这种利率更高些的存款资产。

 

4、可以配置部分黄金和美元。黄金作为硬通货,无论是国家还是个人都是避险的最佳选择。因为黄金的稀缺性,其本身具有价值,而货币只是信用符号,以国家为背书。经济危机时,对于一些小国来说,这种国家信用背书的货币完全靠不住,而即使是大国,本币币值多少也会受影响。

 

把换美元的配额全部用完,在家准备些美元现金。美元,可以说是仅次于黄金之后的避险资产。这次土耳其的外贸危机使得新兴市场国家货币普遍大跌,而不少资金都流入美元来避险。美元背后是美国的国家信用和全球结算流通功能,美国之强大不言而喻,而美元的高结算和流通性也是危机中的救命稻草(可随时换成更安全的资产),因为大部分货币都能与美元自由兑换,美元也能直接买到绝大多数国家的资产。

 

5、做好失业准备,积累备用资金,收回借款。失业在危机中是大概率的事,企业借不到钱,开展不了业务,就赚不到利润。此外,我们还必须及时收回那些借款,毕竟就算你不失业也不能保证亲戚朋友不失业。与其在危机时问其还钱,不如提前收回,还避免落个趁火打劫的嫌疑。平时咱们要养成积累备用资金的习惯。对于百姓来说,几万十几万的备用资金,即便“坐吃山空”,也能维持一年半载的,足以支撑你到就业。

 

6、人在职场,保住饭碗要紧。经济危机时,有份稳定发工资的工作是件幸福的事。为了幸福,该装孙子就装孙子,装就要装个努力干活儿还很上进的好孙子。不少企业开始降薪裁员,这个时候多理解理解比你还痛苦的老板,坦然接受降薪决定,和公司共患难,相比被裁掉,降薪说明你还有用。更努力地工作,保持好心情好心态,专注工作,这时候是你凸显自己价值的最好时机。

 

既然投什么都不保险,不如投资自己,加紧学习,提升实力,保持职业危机感,多干些事,多会些技能,经济不好时,企业最需要的是一专多能的复合型人才。不显山露水地主动承揽更多工作内容,减少可替代性。这样做不仅能够出色地完成本职工作,更可以兼任其他岗位的工作,成为“节约型人才”,减少被别人替代的机率。

 

经济危机时会有个特别奇怪的形象,外面大把的人找不到工作,企业还总是缺人,关键是优秀的人才太少,企业永远最缺的是良才,还有些企业会趁机挑选精兵强将,这时候,你可以看准时机,如有必要,你如果是高端人才,可以选择更有潜力的发展空间。

 

最后,一定要保证自己的安全!

 

“在外面,跟狗和愤青客气点低调点,疫苗是假的,砍人是真的”,社会矛盾会因为经济危机而加剧,没有思考力的普通人尽量不要参与社会运动,经济危机带来的风险不仅仅只是经济,它可能还是社会和政治上的。

 

经济危机之下,人的力量,特别是老百姓的力量微不足道,根本无法避免经济危机对自身的影响。

 

而且,每一次经济危机最大的受害者,被收割者,永远都是老百姓,这是个不争的现实。

 

少数人享用了货币超发的额度,大多数人却只能牺牲环境、福利、资源,降低生活水平,承受货币贬值之痛,甚至被迫借贷透支来勾兑当下所谓生活质量。

 

这已经成为巨大的恶性循环,基本不可能软着陆了!

 

所以,普通人能够做到的极致也就是,即使被收割,也会被收割得少一点,或者哪怕你被收割,你也被收割得明明白白,心服口服。

※ 图文来自网络,良知传媒对文中观点保持中立,仅供参考、交流之目的。如有侵权请联系我们处理。

    

责任编辑:HUA  XIN

 

 

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