一、寻得桃源好避秦

2018年初,我在从马来西亚回上海过农历春节的飞机上,用手机写了《大洪水会再来吗?——我的诺亚方舟》一文,百度上还能搜到。当时还没有修宪,也还没有贸易战,后来的局势发展印证了我的担忧。

贸易战只是冰山一角,在经济层面中美会达成暂时的和解,但天朝利益集团与普世价值观及国际通行规则的冲突,仍将持续,根源不在一人一事,而在于权力来源于(且至今仍依赖)暴力的必然结果。

三十多年改革开放积蓄了某些制度坚决不改的本钱,后发劣势积重难返,苏东模式窗口期已过。西班牙智利台湾社会能够和平转型,重要条件是其社会财富私有制占主体,公权力的含金量并不很高,民众意识觉醒后其恋栈代价超过弃栈。中国公有制仍占主体,且还在“做大做强”,公权力能够支配全民财富肆意妄为,毒性极强使人上瘾欲罢不能。因此除非奇迹出现,今后中国局势必继续恶化。多数人混混噩噩,部分人看得清但心存侥幸,所谓历史教训,就是很少人能真正从中吸取到教训。

我天性不羁,侥幸有机会选择,危墙不立乱邦不居,今天我选择离开中国,到马耳他共和国居留学习一段时间,顺便拿一张可在欧洲漫游的永久通行证。许多朋友问我为何作此选择,现在我在飞机上,再用手机写几行字,作为回复,也算临别感言。

二、中国经济滑坡已难逆转

事关国运的首要问题还是经济。经济事关每一个人福祉,惰政、蠢政与恶政的不良后果,最终会通过经济问题显现出来。中美贸易战虽兹事体大,但美国民众日用品主要依赖发展中国家,目前大部分仍靠中国提供,近年内难被完全替代,美国政府得罪不起选民,中国政府目前内忧外患,手中本无多少筹码,因此贸易战双方必会见好就收(关于中美贸易战结局的分析,可参阅陈天庸、谢作诗2018年3月写的《中美贸易战:原因、性质及中国的应对措施》)。中国政府被迫降点关税,相当于给本国民众减点税刺激消费,对国家财政影响并不大。更大麻烦在于,贸易战平息后的中国经济,趋势极不乐观。网上我还没看到很详细的中国未来经济预判分析文章,在此说说我的看法。

1、产业外迁最致命

中国外资正以整个产业链相关企业群体外迁的规模逃离。广东胶鞋家俱等多个行业外资企业大量搬迁出境。三星、富士康、优衣裤、无印良品大幅减少中国工厂,耐克、阿迪达斯此前已将生产工厂转到越南。内资企业有条件的也在设法外迁。产业外迁的转折点并非中美贸易战,冰冻三尺非一日之寒,中国政府多年来动辄打民族牌,反日反美反西方,2016年韩国萨德事件激发中国大规模排外,都已让外资企业寒意彻骨。企业从谋划迁移到实际搬迁,至少需两三年,因此2019年起的今后三年,企业外迁潮会一年比一年猛,其后果比目前能预想到的将更严重。

中美贸易战基本还只是嘴仗,美方关税制裁尚未大规模实施,目前并未真正导致中国企业外销成本大幅上升。川普的贸易战只是给外资企业离开中国增加了一个理由。别以为贸易战和解了,要迁移的外企就会留下来。导致企业外迁是因为中国的综合成本过高,首先是制度成本高,加上中国民族民粹主义泛滥,导致外企对中国未来预期不佳,安全感丧失。近来华为孟任女事件天朝昏招迭出,更增加了外资不安全感,必进一步加速外资逃离。

产业外迁对人口众多的发展中国家后果是致命的。青壮劳动力无法贮存,人老了就成为社会负担。中国其他资源禀赋远不能与阿根廷相比,因此说中国将陷南美式的“中等收入陷阱”,太乐观了。看看委内瑞拉与津巴布韦吧,那才是未来中国的映像:暴政朽而不倒,民众苦海无边,年轻一代看不到未来,整个社会看不到改善希望。

香港自上世纪八十年代开始产业外迁,到现在几乎没有了制造业,目前香港金融服务业走向衰退,社会便弥漫绝望气氛。台湾企业外迁程度比香港稍轻,也已导致台湾工人几乎二十年没加工资,年轻人起薪一直停留在台币22K。台湾每届候选人都喊拚经济,都没有起色。中国大陆与港台差距不可以道里计,世界贸易一体化时代,企业随时面对国际市场竞争,制造业企业对成本尤其敏感,民主社会政治家要用高福利讨好选民,专制政体要强力维稳,制度运行成本都很难降低,因此制造业企业只能不断地“逐水草而居”,迁到综合成本更低的地方才可续命。现在东南亚与印度的投资环境不断改善,综合成本已显著低于中国,在中国的外资企业不走就得等死。一些内资企业如果不能转移到成本更低的地方,也很难熬过今后几年。

制造业企业搬迁是件伤筋动骨的事,因此产业一旦转移就不可能回来。中国外资企业产出占中国GDP四分之一以上,加上带动的相关产业,外资企业影响中国40%GDP,50%左右进出口额(可参照中国商务部《中国外商投资报告》,数据为2017年度统计数据)。再加上内资私营企业也已开始大量停产倒闭,今后三五年内,产业外迁将导致中国增加上亿失业人口。其中能够“回乡创业”的主要是五十岁以上的农民工,农村无法提供与城市类似的就业、工资与生活环境,青壮农民工大多数不会忍受农村的贫穷枯燥,农民工城里出生的二代,更是无法接受农村的生活环境。大批青壮农民工与城里出生的农二代,有城留不下,有村回不去,必成社会动荡之源。

贫穷失业是培养民族与民粹主义的温床,民粹主义是专制的最得力帮凶,经济滑坡的后果,绝不只是节衣缩食的问题,首先必引发民粹主义泛滥,不患寡而患不均,中产以上阶层都将成为民粹靶子,再次打土豪分田地是必然会发生的事。唯有在经济未严重恶化前立即启动宪政民主,形成社会多元制约体系,方可制约民粹。中国如不立即开始宪政进程,民粹主义潮流今后几年内将淹没中国,义和团将沉渣泛起裹挟社会。

宪政民主转型需要一定物质条件,饿殍遍野民不聊生时,暴力是暴民唯一懂得的语言,需求层次定律决定了宪政民主制度难以在整个社会普遍贫穷的阶段稳定建立与施行。宪政是君子之争,仓廪实而知礼节,衣食足而知荣辱,如待经济崩溃,民不聊生,宪政民主便是沙上建塔。

经济搞不好,中国没希望。中国经济能否搞好?取决于2019年中国能不能发生颠覆性的制度改变,大幅降低民营企业综合成本。

2、中国企业的成本高在哪里?能否降低?

找准病因才能对症下药。多数学者说中国企业高成本来自高税负与过高的社保,因此大力呼吁减税与降社保缴费比例。其实不然。

中国社保占工资比例近40%,这其实就是所得税,是企业的沉重负担。但中国除北上广深外的大多数地区,通常默许企业只按工人数量的30%左右交社保。

中国税负确实高,尤其税收结构很不合理,生产流通环节而非消费环节承担了主要税负,极不利于促进企业增加积累扩大投资——对不同环节征税的调节效应是不一样的,税负从生产环节传递分摊到消费环节,是有成本的。

流行的谬误认为投资、出口与消费是拉动经济的三驾马车,其实只有私企投资才是拉动经济的唯一动力,出口与消费是有效投资的结果,而非与投资并列的发展动力。中国高税收严重影响企业增加积累扩大生产,很不利于经济发展,减税是必要的。

我自己经营企业,平时与企业家朋友相从较密,我总结民企老板面临的外部困难,普遍来说,约20%来自于重税,20%来自于干预用工自由的劳动法规与社保负担,还有60%左右,来自于官员以检查、整顿、罚款、责令整改、环评标准过高、强制限产、责令停业、拆违、赶人、限制经营范围、限制外来人口子女入学、购房等等各种限制与折腾带来的麻烦,让企业动辄得咎。税收与社保虽不合理,但只要规则清晰,企业还有个明确预期,可以部分规避或提前分散风险负担。唯有政府官员随心所欲的权力之手干预企业经营,以及官吏以执法为名的寻租滋事,如苍蝇防不胜防,最令企业经营者心力交瘁。应对这类骚扰的时间与精力,是企业经营者更大的成本。但由于这种成本难量化、难表述、难避免,学者与主政者常回避这类问题,视而不见。且政府还需养大批冗员以维稳,腐败是专制政体运行的润滑剂,“纵兵劫掠”也是养兵之法。因此官员权力寻租与蛮横折腾企业带来的负担与损失,虽危害更甚于高税收与高社保,现行体制下要想预防与避免,基本无望。

政府官员权力寻租与瞎折腾,比高税收与社保更伤害企业。纪检监察显然解决不了这个问题,官员折腾企业,名义上都有法有据。政府部门高标准立法、选择性执法,让企业普遍处于违法状态,政府官员随时可上门刁难处罚,这是中国所有民企面临的常态。企业大油水多,上门刁难敲诈的官员越多。匹夫无罪,怀璧其罪。古谓灭门的知县,今有随意封门的胥吏。更糟糕的是民企面对公权力侵害毫无救济手段,只能束手待宰。

这几年纪检监察扩权的结果竟是,企业受到的刁难并未减少,不花钱绝难办事,但如没有熟人介绍勾兑,企业愿花钱官员也不敢要,故现在找人花钱摆平官员的中间成本,常大于以前直接给官员红包的支出。另外,财务上如何处理这些用于打点的灰色支出,以防备纪检监察查处官员时以“涉案人员”为名带走企业老板长期羁押,又成为企业的另一麻烦。按刑诉法等规定,杀了人被抓捕24小时后律师便可介入会见,这几年常有企业主被纪委监察带走失联几个月,企业上下与家属竟无从查问下落。被中国纪检监察部门“协助调查”羁押所受的非人折磨,远甚于监狱,这成为很多中国企业家难摆脱的梦魇。有西律师多年前写的《中国企业家都在通往监狱的路上》一文,道出了中国企业经营者的辛酸,至今仍不断被转发。

中国监察法缺乏程序正义,监察机关公然自谓属政治机关,而非司法机关,却可以羁押公民,且不允许律师会见,明显与现代法治相悖。厂卫滥权绝不可能带来吏治清明。恶法非法,监察法不改,中国与现代法治逾行逾远。

官员财产公开与舆论监督,已被全球文明国家证明是最有效的防腐败手段,大数据时代让官员财产公开与接受社会监督,极为容易,天朝弃而不用,非要守着粪坑打苍蝇。当前官员权力寻租又越演越烈,我写文分析过,茅台酒价格可作为中国腐败指数,今年茅台涨价竟与监察委扩权几乎同步。古谓养贼自肥拥匪自重,这微妙关系,谁解其味。

综上,公权力不受制约导致的官吏寻租与随意折腾,是中国企业最沉重的负担。民族与民粹主义增加外资的不安全感,是外资企业的额外成本。

此外政府垄断土地导致高房价,垄断上游产业控制基础原料与燃料等价格,也是中国企业成本上升的重要因素,房价是劳动者的生活成本,也即是用工企业的人工成本,员工工资起码得能够维持其衣食住行。税费水电油气排污路费红包上游原材料等,市场各项成本是环环相加传递的,成本链条上任何一环的成本,也都是另一环的成本。

中国政府对民企管束太紧攫取太多,当前中国民企外有东南亚印度等劳动力成本低廉的竞争对手,内有世界最昂贵政府的盘剥、行政干预与权力寻租,办企业辛苦还不挣钱,老板累死累活只是为政府与员工打工,不堪重负之下企业关门大吉将成燎原之势。即使没有贸易战,中国经济下滑的势头也已不可逆转。

贸易战如持续下去,将重创中国制造业。当然我认为贸易战会暂时和解。但如不能由此带来中国政治制度改良,则中国的发展仍然是他国的威胁,外资企业与外来订单仍必大量转移到他国,中国的制造业实际产出将在今后五年内萎缩近半。

(有人认为凭中国内需市场也可以大体维持现有经济规模,称中国即使少了对美国的出口,也只影响GDP几个百分点。无知之论。设想一个村里没了外出打工收入,各户将只能自耕自织自给自足,结果必是百业凋敝,也许只剩下一个水磨坊。打工收入是村里其他各业兴旺的前提与基础。外贸收入是人民币发钞之锚,而且有了稳定的外贸收入,才能带动配套产业与服务业等百业兴旺。现代金融与服务业,通常可将外贸收入通过信用放大与服务业传递,将经济GDP扩张数倍以上,中国经济目前年80万多亿人民币的GDP,约一半是靠每年2万多亿美元的外贸收入直接与间接拉动的。外贸收入才是推动中国经济多米诺的第一张牌。没有外贸收入,中国有效内需也将大幅减少——付得起钱的需求才是有效需求,没有基础收入,哪来有效内需?如果闭关锁国,中国会逐渐退化回到小农经济,经济大幅度萎缩,社会退步,被世界文明社会抛弃。)

要降低中国企业成本,首先必须大幅降低中国制度成本。要维持中国经济规模,必须维持外贸规模,要维持外贸规模,首先必须留住外资企业。现在中国连内资都留不住,企业家人心惶惶,中国经济还能继续发展吗?退一步,中国经济还能维持现有规模吗?

最关键是,2019年,中国会有制度方面的重大改变吗?如果没有改变,中国经济衰退及其后果将超过一般人想像。

三、大洪水何时再来?

安邦吴小晖被判处18年有期徒刑,安邦保险等部分被政府接管。明天系肖建华被从香港抓回,至今未获自由。万达王健林变卖资产。复星郭广昌的海外投资折戟。马云宣布2019年退任。马化腾刘强东穿红军装朝拜后公司股价大跌,此前刘强东称大数据可助二十年内实现共产主义,作为人民大学毕业生他应该知道共产主义就是消灭私有制,也许他内心已预见自己将被共产?无恒产者无恒心,几个月前强子妻女在侧仍酗酒出轨,很象是无恒心者今朝有酒今朝醉的心态使然。

对他们来说,大洪水已经来了。

很多学者与商人已感受到中国政治与经济的波涛汹涌。

开网店的小店主应也有风雨交加的感觉了。电商法规定要求所有网店都办理营业执照并纳税,依我看这举措加强社会管治控制的意图远大于收税,因为向小微企业征税,其收益很可能低于征税成本。但与几年来大城市大规模封墙关店一样,这些任性专横又愚蠢的管控举措,断了升斗小民的生路,底层民众自谋生路,政府不支持还处处设限,这些管控措施破坏了市场的正常运行,人为加大了市民生活成本与经济运行成本,批量制造出更多困难群众。

国家税务总局2018年11月27日发布的《重大税收违法失信案件信息公布办法》,规定欠税超10万元就上黑名单,经营者将被阻止出境、买房等(称“将纳税信用评价结果通报相关部门,建议在经营、投融资、取得政府供应土地、进出口、出入境、注册新公司、工程招投标、政府采购、获得荣誉、安全许可、生产许可、从业任职资格、资质审核等方面予以限制或禁止”)。

2019年1月1日起施行的《中国人民银行关于非银行支付机构开展大额交易报告工作有关要求的通知》当日单笔或者累计交易人民币5万元以上,或转帐人民币20万元以上(含20万元),就将被列入大额可疑交易进行监控。

大数据时代,人人都毫无隐私可言,有产者更如栏中猪羊,政府要清算处罚宰杀,易如反掌,到时谁能幸免?

多数人将会一直到自己与亲友谋生无着、安全有忧时,才恍然发觉,原来自己周边已是洪水齐肩,无处可逃了。

对2019年短期经济形势,许多人持审慎乐观。我对短期也不乐观,对长期更悲观。前几天央妈降准1%,据称可释放出15000亿人民币。经济滑坡时中国政府必按老套路继续大规模放水刺激经济,继续扩大公共投资以稳就业稳增长,但没有效益的投资就是消灭财富,许多政府低效项目建成后收益不够付利息,还须赔巨额运行与维护成本,成为全民负担。

中国社会缺的不是钱,是挣钱机会。中国民企海外投资渠道被外汇管制政策堵死,国内有利可图的行业被国企垄断,民企各项成本太高,普遍不挣钱,这才是中国经济的病因所在。

不除病因,只靠政府继续印钞放水扩大公共投资拉动经济,相当于进一步将社会财富向政府手中转移,稀释民众手中的财富。这样做的结果是进一步加强了政府掌控经济集中度,政府掌控的经济运行效率显然远低于民企效率,现行政策还在不断降低中国经济运行效率。这是饮鸩止渴挖肉补疮,放任中国经济陷入恶性循环。大印钞大通胀,是现行政策的最终必然结局。城市房产将成有产者最后保值工具,但同时不动产也将冻结有产者的财富,坐等官府清算盘剥。中国楼市的结局,我在《中国楼市何时跌》一文里预测过了。现在的中国经济就是一艘正开往深渊的太平轮。如果没有根本性改变,船毁人亡的结局谁也逃不过。

四、社会动荡临界点:维稳者成为被维稳对象

中国目前正处于社会经济与政治变化转折临界点,中国社会稳定与否,首先取决于经济能否稳步增长,至少不倒退。国际竞争激烈,各国经济发展如逆水行舟,不进则退,中国经济失速必使产业大量外迁,导致大量失业,引发社会动荡失序。

问:中国社会全面动荡失序的临界点在哪?

答:财政养不起庞大的吃公粮群体,大批维稳者成为被维稳对象之时。

当前5600万退伍军人已成维稳对象,此前他们曾是维稳者。3000多万事业编制人员将是第二批被维稳对象,财政已无力长期供养他们,但他们中许多人已丧失自食其力的能力。

待到经济下滑导致政府财政汲取严重不足时,协警与城管等部门中大批临时工将首先被裁,侥幸保住泥饭碗的,也只能拿微薄工资干脏活苦活,食之无味弃之可惜。

从秦朝下级军官陈胜吴广到明朝官营驿站下岗驿卒李自成,捕快张献忠,一直到辛亥革命,社会鼎革首倡者主要是失意的体制内人员。所以一味扩充维稳队伍很可能是养虎为患,维稳需要政府财力支撑,一旦财政汲取不足,最有可能成为社会动荡主力的,往往正是原来的维稳者。不改良制度,只靠暴力维稳,一定是越维越不稳。

中国资源贫乏人口老化,历年各种社会矛盾不断累积,社会原子化,缺乏士绅阶层,缺乏宗教信仰,社会一旦乱起来,必如负载过重的大货车坡道后滑,却没有刹车。中国须多少年才能走出乱治循环?大清后期幸有曾国藩左宗棠李鸿章等名将勉力维持,太平天国也乱了十四年,死人一亿多,现在体制内持续逆淘汰,恐怕难觅曾左李了。

乱世社会动荡失序,人人都是受害者。兴亡皆是百姓苦,别指望社会动荡后一定会出现一个更好的社会。

经济衰退社会动荡的中国,会回到丛林社会。手中有一点点权力与武力者,都将变本加厉盘剥民众,敲骨吸髓。同时自己也朝不保夕,时刻可能成为他人猎物。商人成为权力食物链的终端食物,各种变相的打土豪分田地政策将明目张胆,甚至获得大众欢呼喝彩。目前几个商界大佬已成笼中猎物。影视明星们粉丝无数,平时看似神通广大,但近半年来他们面对公权力各种关门打狗式的查税清算盘剥,噤若寒蝉束手无策,一些民众还拍手称快。如轮到你我,谁比商界大佬与影视明星们更有自保能力?

经济下滑也将导致中国最大的中产阶层——干部阶层的生活水平全面下降,靠山吃山,到时候权力寻租现象将更加失控。中国纪委与现监察委,多年来以非法治的严厉手段管控干部,一方面对干部有相当的威慑作用,一定程度起到了抑制公权力寻租的效果;另一方面污染了法治的源头——现在干部是对法治最没有信仰敬畏的群体,做事消极怠工,对监察委畏而不敬,工作动力全靠高福利与灰色收入撑着。一旦干部的现有收入与高福利难以为继,铁饭碗成为鸡肋,那时官员将对纪委监察部门不敬也不畏,而政权维稳还需要他们,其权力寻租必更肆虐,法不责众,监察部门明知普遍贪腐也只能挣只眼闭只眼,且监察人员一样会利用权力寻租,既敲诈“肥鸭子”干部,也可能猫鼠合流,合谋敲诈关联的企业主,共同分赃。

理论上,中国挟其经济体量与产业链完整,闭关锁国也可象康乾时代一样自给自足,只是那样的话,民众生活品质会退回到上世纪八十年代初。其中受影响最大的自然是中产阶层——而中国干部就是当前最大的中产阶层,到时必群体性抗命,对上阳逢阴违,对下纵容劫掠。非民选的官僚阶层,历来具有单向棘轮效应:有利于其扩权寻租的政令,如扩大投资、增加行业限制、加强对企业与民众管治,必变本加厉迅速落实,与此相反的事,必一拖二推三对抗,三令五申,仍难落实。

官僚阶层有其自己利益与相对独立性,当前官僚阶层对邓式“改革开放”有共识,正明里暗里顽强抵抗极左派开倒车,在努力将倒开的车子拽住,往胡温时代的方向推。近来一系列自相矛盾的政策,就是激烈博弈的体现。但他们只是希望中国政局回到胡温时代,那个较现在相对自由宽容的年代——包括对官员腐败的宽容。而世界宪政民主潮流已浩荡向前,中国内外的环境也已发生重大变化,互联网加速了世界一体化,社会停滞即是倒退。

“保卫改革开放”如被曲解为回到江胡时代,绝对解决不了上文所说的降低企业综合成本的问题。稳定压倒一切的维稳思维,解决不了执政党自身恶性膨胀的问题。中国现在的问题就是这种维稳思维的结果。执政者拿刀砍百姓容易,砍自己就下不了手,所以天朝多年口喊精兵简政,越减机构越臃肿,已成为中国社会不可承受之重。

因此有学者提出“告别改革开放”,可以理解,但如何做到?保卫派与告别派的目标并无区别,应该怎么样,认识都一致。能够怎么样?不是越激进者就越高尚,不是越激烈就效果越好。动机不重要,行为客观效果更重要。能够一步飞跃当然好,如何做到?如不能一步飞跃,那么日拱一卒,积跬步致千里的渐进改良,不该被嘲讽。真正的改革开放是包括执政阶层在内的中国人共同利益所在,需要“咸与维新”。

需明白当前中国只有两项选择:或前进过渡到民主宪政,和平转型;或退回到极权专政,最终走向崩溃。

五、维稳四策

我的许多朋友在国内建言抗争,知其不可为而为之,我对他们深怀敬意。2019年元旦前,我们近百位朋友以《中国百位公共知识分子“改革开放”四十年感言》为题,各人说了一句话。我只是小商人,不算知识分子,但与他们同气相求,也忝列其中说了句:有利于私有产权保护与自由市场经济的才是改革,改革方向应该是增加人的自由。

中国如能避免动荡和平转型,是国人之幸。社会变革要以人为本,兴亡皆是百姓苦,什么主义不重要,民众福祉为重。从这个角度说,我是坚定的维稳改良派。位卑未敢忘忧国,在此我提出四点施政建议:

1、实行宪政,接受普世价值

2019年内召开政改会议,有序推进宪政民主。宪政即是限权,对政府限权,才能落实政府部门精兵简政。政府简政减人,才能对企业与民众减负。对民企大幅减负,才能稳经济。

中国实行民主宪政,接受普世价值,才能真正融入世界,中国的发展才不会被视为对文明世界的威胁。中国才能发挥比较优势,在世界贸易分工体系中保持现有份额。如此执政者才是真正执政为民,造福全体国人。

宪政是人类世界共同文明成果,没有什么地域性与特殊国情不能适应问题。二战后麦克阿瑟将几个美国年轻人关在一处密室里九天,完全按美国人思维捣鼓出一部日本宪法,七十多年来一字未改,助日本发展成了国民幸福指数居世界前列的现代国家。

接受宪政首先是接受政治多元,明智的执政者要主动培养温和的反对派,促进社会和平转型,这样才能避免社会血腥冲突。没有永远的执政党,掌权时加于他人身上的,最终都会回到自身或后代身上。种瓜得瓜,与暴力统治相随的是血酬定律。

思想自由与信仰自由,是宪政民主的基础。当前封号删贴压制言论自由,打压迫害基督徒与部分少数族群,严重侵犯人权,应当立即停止。信仰自由是基本人权,宗教是良善社会的稳定因素。

拒绝普世价值,放着大路不走,非要“艰难探索”,非蠢即坏。如以一己之私绑架整个执政阶层一同走向深渊,终会被觉醒者抛弃铲除。从齐奥塞斯库萨达姆卡扎菲,独裁者的下场前车可鉴。中国体制内汇集了中国大部分精英,变革也是他们的迫切需要。有朋友预言,上如不主动改行宪政,二年之内,必有巨变。我不敢如此乐观,但我知道,现状绝不可能持续。如无良性巨变,开倒车结果大概率是车毁人亡,那时候所有人,要么成为施暴者,要么成为暴力的对象,一些人既是施暴者又是受害者,一切中产者,包括干部群体、白领与企业主,都将是暴民暴力指向的对象,现在的左中右,其实都属中产,到时统统玉石俱焚。

实行宪政是兼顾利益受损者,保全既得利益者的万全之策。

2、放开除军事工业之外的所有行业垄断。

全面放开对银行、石油、通讯、移动、互联网、电力、铁路、高速公路、航空、煤、气、水、矿产、冶金、化工、医疗、教育、保险等所有行业的国有垄断,能释放巨大经济活力。

中国实际有四大征税系统:国税地税社保已合并,算一家。国企其实是第二征税系统,国企垄断了民众躲不开的“国计民生”行业,国企垄断溢价具备税收特征:固定、强制、无偿。国企低效浪费,只会消灭财富,主政者应也很清楚,但国企是党产,是利益集团的小金库,国企亏损相当于征税成本,利益集团绝不会轻易交出的。土地财政是政府第三征税系统,现在地方政府卖地所得一年达五万多亿,少了土地财政,许多地方政府得停摆。四是可随意印钞发债的中央银行与财政系统。印钞通胀稀释民众存款购买力,掠夺升斗小民财富于无形,印钞是收铸币税,富人还可通过购房换汇抵御通胀,通胀最大受害者是穷人。

去产能与环保风暴,去的是民营企业产能,保的是相对低效的国企,严重破坏社会生产力。现在面对经济滑坡,苛政略有缓和,但许多民企已元气大伤,肆虐不受节制的公权力如达摩克利斯之剑高悬民企头项,随时可让民企老板人财两空,何况政府从未承认做错,很多企业仍永远处于半违法状态,战战兢兢信心不再。

只要仍坚持做大做强国有经济,民企就没有发展空间。裁判员坚持要下场踢球,那么游戏就无法继续。只有放开国企对上游行业的垄断,让利于民,中国经济才能恢复活力。

3、放开对土地利用的过多限制,对土地功能松绑。

土地是国民最重要财富,中国土地垄断为公有,已成为限制土地财富效应发挥的桎梏。土地私有是大方向,目前急需政府首先放松对土地利用的过多限制,以市场手段调节土地需求,放开对土地功能、容积率等等的过多限制,允许土地使用权由民企与民众个人自由交易,这样便可极大释放土地作为最重要财富的潜在价值,减少土地闲置浪费,为国民创造更多财富。

2018年12月23日至29日举行的第十三届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第七次会议审议通过的《土地管理法》修正案草案,确定集体建设用地可以不经过征收,直接进入市场。为打破政府土地垄断开了一个口子。但这必与土地财政产生冲突,地方政府既是利益主体又是裁判员,岂会允许“农民集体”口中夺食?如废除土地财政,中国大多数地区的地方政府将立即停摆。如何才能让地方政府对这与己争利的法律让步,不会以公权力横加限制,使该法条规定的权利永远停留在纸面上? ——必须大幅减少地方政府的事权,为地方政府减负。

中国地方政府间的主动竞争,曾是推动经济发展的重要推力。这前提是土地既然已经被强制公有,那么通过地方政府间的竞争,竞相开发工业区,将农地转变为工业用途,释放土地级差收益,客观上也有助于初步明晰产权,地方政府与官员获利的同时,也推动了中国经济快速发展。在这方面各地方政府就是一家家公司,公司间竞争降低了投资者的初始进入成本。中国在基础设施建设与城市建设方面,“体制优势”是很明显的,中国城市建设的效率确实世界第一。但到现在,这个土地公有制基础上地方政府竞争的特殊红利,已经穷尽,土地成了政府攫取民众财富的重要工具,高房价透支了普通民众大半辈子的收益,企业员工的居住成本,就是企业用工的工资成本,高房价已成为民众与企业不可承受之重,公有制土地资源的配置低效浪费又显失公平,到了不改不行的时候了。

释放土地利用方面的制度红利,对各方都是帕累托改进,目前地方政府与企业都有极大积极性,需要改变的是中央对土地利用的僵死控制,所谓18亿亩耕地红线,纯是拍脑袋决策,新的遥感数据显示,实际中国现有耕地超过23亿亩,拿出5%便足以满足工业化与城市化的需要,可大幅降低民众生活成本,降低企业综合成本,提高中国企业国际竞争力。

4.取消户口限制,取消附加于户口上的特权。

城市化趋势是大城市化,大城市大大提高经济与创新效率。中国严格控制特大城市的发展,逆大城市化,严重损害经济效率与创新效率。中国控制特大城市发展出于政治考量,担心经济滑坡后大量失业人员集聚于大城市,成为动乱之源。但人是活的,大规模回乡创业显然是骗人,农业劳动低效低收益,且中国农村劳动力一直严重过剩。

取消大城市户口限制,允许国人自由在大城市购房、居住、就业、就学,取消附加于户口上的种种福利,让人力资源自由流动,便能极大释放经济活力。目前驱赶“低端人口”的种种做法,侵犯人权,损害经济,也不可能真正利于社会稳定。民以食为天,经济好社会自然稳定,经济不好,再严苛的限制也无法将农民禁锢于土地上,无法阻止农民为生存的各种抗争。

以上这四条建议合起来就四个字:增加自由。

经济发展、企业创新,都是私营企业自身的本能需求,本不需要政府太费力引导,真正保护好私有产权,放松土地利用限制,给民众更多自由,经济发展与创新都是必然的结果。而要真正保护私有产权,须先对政府限权,政府解除国企行业垄断与资本管制,把言论自由还给民众,这是产权保护的基础条件。贸易战与很多国际冲突,根源皆是价值观冲突,中国执政党如实行宪政,退一步便海阔天空。

目前中国社会变革需要体制内外有远见的精英诚意合作。和平转型应当是体制内外精英协作的结果。宪政限权需要精英间相互尊重,充分榷商,求同存异。

中国精英目前仍大多在体制内,体制内外的社会精英们,更清楚社会问题所在,更容易接受宪政。消灭了精英的社会,必定只剩下愚昧鲁莽无序。宪政的本义是接受多元利益主体和平榷商,体制内精英也是重要利益主体之一。社会和解需要博大胸怀,我们的祖辈父辈已流了太多的血,不要再流血,不要再使用暴力,靠暴力建立不起宪政民主——革命者付出的代价越高,越不可能放弃到手的权力,那时革命者又会成为另一专制者,屠龙者又会变成恶龙。任何权力都需要制衡,宪政不是夺权,需要的只是对公权力限权。

如何让拿刀的手放下刀?当他们感受到没有威胁的时候。和平而坚韧的宪政民主改良主义者,是中国仅存的和平转型希望所在。如仍然简单粗暴地打压他们,则会错失中国的和平改良机会。执政阶层长期暴戾的施政过程,累积了太多的仇恨,如何平和主动地转型,解决权力和平交接的问题,是执政阶层的最大利益所在。台湾当年二二八的血腥记忆犹新,38年戒严白色恐怖,也不乏血债民怨,最终和平转型,四百万外省来的“统治阶层”,与本省籍民众和睦相处,台湾华人用宪政民主解决了历史清算问题,已为社会和解与平稳转型作了很好的示范。

(我以后有时间再写一篇《和解与转型正义》,详细说说这个话题)。

中国新的历史转折已经开始,我们都有幸亲历历史。是顺应潮流,推动社会和解与宪政转型,还是任性妄为,玉石俱焚?在中国这艘大船上的所有人,为了你的家人与亲人,为你自己与子孙后代,请担当起历史使命,从自己做起,拒绝倒退,践行宪政。释放善意,促成社会和解与良性转型。

为政者,请放弃斗争思维,与世界和解,让民众自由。

以上四条建议,任何一条都能释放巨大的发展潜能。如能在今后三五年内全部做到以上四条,中国仍大有希望。中国正面临越来越大的内外压力,如2019年天朝在这四个关键问题上仍逆流而动一条也不改,委内瑞拉与津巴布韦就是我们不远的未来。

那么朋友们,自求多福,能离开的,及早安排。

六、结语:地中海畔,春暖花开

仍放不下家国情怀,倏忽间我已年过半百,世界还有多少未知值得探索,远方有多少风景值得拥抱。造物主创造了我们,是为了让我们享受生命、爱与安宁,不是为了让我们互相仇视怨恨互害。如果你在故国不能舒心如意,只能尝试去迁徙,去寻找,人类的历史就是迁徙史,天涯何处无芳草。

我已能从飞机上俯瞰地中海的粼粼波光,我知道此刻中原大地正白雪皑皑寒风凛冽,而此时地中海沿岸恰是暖风和煦花开正妍。欧罗巴是上帝垂顾的地方,地理位置上,马耳他恰是地中海的“海心”,地中海数千年波澜壮阔的历史,凝结成马耳他这个天主教小国的祥和安宁,这里是基督教从中东传播到欧洲的第一站,仅半个新加坡大的欧洲小岛国,七千年文明历史赋予她建筑丰富内涵,蓝色海洋文明孕育了她的智慧与文化,英吉利帝国150多年的殖民统治带给她宪政法治与悦耳英语,地中海的蔚蓝衬映着马耳他当地特有石材砌成的历史建筑,色彩明亮而柔和。我正要降落到她的怀里。

朋友们,以后欢迎你来马耳他找我游玩,地中海是维纳斯的故乡,永远波光潋滟风姿绰约,地中海美食与宜人气候世界闻名。人生几何,欢迎你抽空来地中海,与我把酒临风,纵论天下。我已先到一步,我在地中海马耳他岛,等待你来。

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Whhat then, about are concerned about? I wanted to be certain. If we
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What will i do as well as other? (E.g., I will think of myself as deserving; Let me use positive words to explain myself; Let me choose friends that I can be honest and open with and have good opinion of me). If she or he doesn't know or doesn't plan out what s/he will do instead, s/he will fall back into old habits and familiar behaviour. The new behaviour use the printer replace old behaviour should be planned over!

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