美媒:贸易战令中国经济疾降 北京重压下急于脱身

有专家称,贸易战导致中国经济疾降,北京深感不安,重压之下急于脱身。

刚刚结束的美中贸易谈判,传递出双方希望缓和的意向。有专家称,贸易战导致中国经济疾降,北京深感不安,重压之下急于脱身。但北京迄今只是在大问题上做“小改动”,双方的深层分歧将长期存在,并成为未来争端和冲突的根源。

美中副部长级经贸谈判1月9日在北京结束后,亚洲和美国股市都有积极反应。《美国之音》报导称,市场显然是感受到此次谈判传递出双方希望缓和的意向。

有专家称,北京在经济疾降的重压下,急于从贸易争端中脱身,但双方能否在3月2日的最后休战期限达成协议,仍难以预料。

尽管中共官方在尽量淡化贸易纠纷对中国经济的影响,但这段时间中国经济开始疾速放缓,尤其是中国制造业。

金融信息咨询公司IHS Markit亚太地区首席经济学家拉吉夫•比斯瓦斯说,调查结果显示,过去6个月,中国制造业公司的出口订单骤减,“制造业表现降至2017年来,也就是差不多两年来的最低点。”

比斯瓦斯称,这样的状况当然会令北京决策者感到不安。

谈判前夕,川普(川普)总统也曾在白宫对记者们说:“我认为中国(共)想要解决问题。他们的经济不是很好。我认为这给他们很大的谈判动力。”

然而,美国智库外交关系理事会的经济学家布拉德•塞策认为,此次谈判从台面上看,中方并没有做出实质改变,只是“对大问题的小改动”。

中方同意购买数量可观的美国农产品、能源和制造业产品。同时强调了白宫方面关切的中方如何保障知识产权,以及强制性技术转让等问题。

有知情人士告诉彭博社,本此谈判美中官员在能源和农业等领域的立场更加接近,但在棘手的问题上(中共结构性改革)则“更加分歧”。

哈德逊研究所(Hudson Institute)中国专家白邦瑞(Michael Pillsbury)表示,“最大的挑战不是就各项议题达成协议,而是如何确保中方各项承诺的可执行性。”

此前有分析认为,中共结构性改革问题将动摇中共专制体制的根基,中共很难对此做出实质的改变,此前的承诺很可能是一种拖延的手段。

针对美国关注的“中国制造2025”计划,北京意识到这个产业政策会令贸易谈判复杂化,已对此进行淡化处理,禁止大陆媒体宣传。

“中国制造2025”的目标是在电动汽车,人工智慧等未来的重要产业领域,抢占全球领先地位。但中共自己并没有高新创新技术来实现这一目标,唯一的途径就是盗窃他国的知识产权和强制外企技术转让。

美国将此列入对华关键问题之一,并对此采取强硬措施,严厉打击中共间谍的盗窃行为。

据称,北京当局不久前已开始着手制定新的替代2025产业政策,但这并不能打消外界的疑虑。

外交关系理事会的经济学家塞策说,“从根本上我不认为中国(共)会愿意放弃自己的基本目标,或者说是从前表现为‘中国制造2025’的核心政策。”美中双方这些深层分歧将长期存在,贸易争端很难平息。

转自新唐人 本网编辑:BIN XIA

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