AH-64阿帕奇武装直升机在汉光军演上抛射诱饵弹模拟解放军攻台。(2018年6月7日)

台北 —
台湾国防部星期三(1月9日)宣布的“国军108年战备任务训练”规划强调,实施方案将依照“仗怎么打、部队就怎么练”的要求,“以小博大、以弱击强”。分析认为,台湾军队要以弱击强,美国军售是关键。

台湾的国家中山科学研究院前院长、退役海军中将龚家政认为,台湾军队采取这样的口号,可能是在呼应中国官方最近在两岸关系上的强硬表态。

中国国家主席、中共中央军委主席习近平1月4日签署中央军委“一号命令”,向全军发布开训动员令;中国官方的《解放军报》当天也以头版发表《祖国必须统一、也必然统一》的文章,呼应习近平1月2日的对台讲话。习近平说,针对外部势力和“极少数台独分裂分子及其分裂活动”,不承诺放弃使用武力。

按照台湾军方今年战备任务训练的安排,各部队今年将依照第一季“战力防护作为”、第二季“汉光演习”,第三季“联合反登陆作战”及第四季“联合反空(机)降作战”的演练重点为原则,每季区分“现地侦察”,“图上兵推”,“现地战术”与“实兵演练”四个训练阶段执行 。

龚家政对美国之音说: “这也是呼应对岸,对岸做了一个动作,譬如他签了一个战训令,所以要开始训。然后我们这边说仗怎么打、要怎么弄,这是口语上的,实质上要看他们要怎么样来解释。 ”

台军方强调,全年战备任务的实施方式将依照“仗怎么打,部队就怎么练”的要求,以“战力防护,滨海决胜,滩岸歼敌”整体防卫作战构想作为主轴。台湾军方还说,要让各级指挥官与参谋人员联战指管精熟“不对称战术战法”,发挥“以小搏大,以弱击强”的关键战力。

目前担任中华民国海洋事务与政策协会理事长的龚家政认为,台湾军方要以小博大,还是要强调美国对台军售。

美国总统川普于2018年12月31日签署生效《亚洲再保证倡议法案》,重申美国对台湾等印太区域伙伴的安全承诺,通过定期军售等方式强化对台湾的安保支持。

龚家政对美国之音说::“从这个角度来看,如果要以小博大,可能还是需要美方给我们强力的支持。在(美国对台)军售方面,在反登陆和其他的所谓不对称方面,这是一个很好的方式让国军能够了解到,不能光靠嘴巴在喊,还是要透过这次川普总统的法案,加强在这方面的军售。”

龚家政同时认为,目前台湾的“潜舰国造”方案费时过长,缓不济急,对台湾军力的助益很难起到效果。

台湾国防部长严德发,海军司令部相关官员一再强调,潜舰国造是“国防自主”重要进程,也是不对称作战非常重要一环。

但是海军专家龚家政认为:“潜舰国造问题非常复杂,如果有这么多的装备,这么多的所谓‘红区装备’,你要去整合、系统化,有太多的困难了。何况建立这样的军力是缓不济急的。在我们一般来看,15、20年能做一个prototype(原型)出来,而且是基础型的。我不知道那个时候的价格是怎么样,可是觉得是遥不可及吧。”

为推动潜舰国造方案生效,台国防部称已取得关键技术的输出许可。美国国务院2018年4月公告批准美国厂商向台湾出售建造潜艇关键技术所需的“行销核准证”(marketing license),协助台湾取得潜舰国造计划的“红区装备”,即台军方所定义的那些敏感度高、台湾无研制能力、必须寻求国外商源的装备和技术。

据台湾《中国时报》报道,台湾国防部估计,潜舰国造的合约设计阶段将花费29.9亿多元新台币,“原型首艘潜舰”造舰预算为493亿元新台币,最快下水时间是2024年。台国防部官员计划在今年3月向台湾立法院做机密报告,说明潜舰国造的工作进展。

信息来源美国之音

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